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comparision to Marriott Rewards - most points from credit card

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So I thought I would post this is both the Hilton and Marriott thread to get a fair comparison. I know this topic has been debated a lot - but mine is a different spin on it - I do not get a lot of points from actually staying at the hotels - the vast majority of my points are from using the credit card.

I currently have an AmEx Hhonors card and a citi visa card - I earn more points with my AmEx - and only use the visa where amex isn't accepted. I recently got an offer in the mail to upgrade my AmEx to the surpass which got me to do some number crunching. Currently I do not pay an annual fee (the surpass would have one which by my calculations would be worth upgradding (40,000 more points and a certificate for a free night in exchange for $95).

I figured I would compare it to Marriott - when I searched it appears that most people feel the Marriott program is superior - but those mainly deal with how you earn points for staying and a lower cost of redemption.

I would earn, at a minimum - 2-3 times the points with the free hilton card vs the marriott card (which has an annual fee of $45) or 1.5x the points if I pay for the $85 card.

When I logged on to both site (hhonors and marriott) - an compared hotels in some of my most frequent spots - the marriot stays were just slightly cheaper in points (30k vs 40k) and 20k vs 30k) - not enough justify and switching over. So I am wondering that since I get a very different response than every blog I see, am I missing something? Is Marriott a better program and my math is wrong - or when just looking at credit card point - is Hilton better?

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