Hilton is best hotel program/credit card combo on earnings! (my study)

Extremely slow work day today as everyone (even the locals!) head out for the holidays, so had some time to answer a question that's been nagging at me:

First, everyone has a value per point calc for the major brands, but (outside of credit card sign up bonuses) that's a pretty worthless number because all the hotels earn rates are different, as are the co-branded cards. Second, the major hotel chains are getting extremely close in terms of status benefits, so one vs the other, outside of property location availability, is more a toss up than ever. Third, with every day that goes by more programs like FHR spring up, offering the big three benefits (or at least my big three) of status (room upgrade, free internet, free club/breakfast) to anyone, making personal stay decisions (I still see a ton of value for status under work stays) even more irrelevant. Fourth, I'm not the sort of guy who is willing to keep 15 cards around for spending $250 on gas this month for that extra 1% and whipping out this other card for that tiny bonus etc... I want a good bonus, I want it all the time, and I don't want to have to think much about it.

In summary, what I think is most relevant now is:

1) % return per dollar spent on folio with the co-branded card
2) % return per dollar spent on folio without the co-branded card (in case you want to use your other benefits card in case you do better)
3) % return per dollar spent with just the co-branded card (to see if it makes sense to use it for anything other than the hotels)

My basis:
-All the credit card annual fees are basically a wash; I assume you'll get the best reward card (when multiple versions exist), and all of those are ~$70 to $100 per year. I'm not going to complicate it with this
-I'm comparing top tier only (I have the math for all but mid-tiers are much less comparable and I don't want this post to get any longer)
-I'm assuming you take only points, when you have a choice between points and other options
-I’m assuming you stay at the mainstream properties with normal base points (not a weak “1,000 points per stay regardless of spend” arrangement).
-I'm using generally accepted values for hotel points that I've found here and other places on the web -- NOTE, if you think the value is off by 0.1 cent or so then it won't affect the results much. If many people make a big stink and think a value I’ve assigned is waaaaay off, I’m happy to modify. Further, even if you value points really highly because of a special deal for a special hotel on a special day of the year, the other chains have those deals too, so this should be a really good comparison.

Here are the rates I'm using (in cents per point):

Best Western 0.5
Choice Hotels 0.8
Club Carlson 0.5
Hilton 0.7
Hyatt 1.5
Marriott 0.9
Priority Club (IHG) 0.6
Starwood 2.3
Wyndham 0.3

…And the results are:

Best return for your dollar on the hotel spend using co-branded CC:
Club Carlson 23%
Hilton 19%
Marriott 18%
Choice Hotels 16%
Hyatt 14%
Starwood 14%
Priority Club (IHG) 12%
Best Western 9%
Wyndham 5%

Surprises here, for me, were that Club Carlson and Choice weren’t as bad as I suspected, and that SPG and Hyatt, much ballyhooed for their “great value” (per point) actually aren’t all that great.
I can see you saying “but you said Hilton was the best in your title!?”. Read on, dear reader.

Best return for your dollar on the hotel spend without using co-branded CC:

Club Carlson 18%
Hilton 14%
Marriott 14%
Choice Hotels 12%
Hyatt 10%
Starwood 9%
Priority Club (IHG) 9%
Best Western 7%
Wyndham 3%

Same order (not surprising). What is surprising though, is that the co-branded card is anywhere from a 5% return card on down to a 2% return, depending on brand.

And finally, if you’re spending on uncategorized everyday stuff:

Club Carlson 2.50%
Starwood 2.30%
Hilton 2.10%
Choice Hotels 1.60%
Hyatt 1.50%
Marriott 0.90%
Priority Club (IHG) 0.60%
Wyndham 0.60%
Best Western 0.50%

So again, Club Carlson wins. I’m slightly inclined to completely ignore that result, just because I prefer the Waldorf Astorias and Ritz Carltons, but it is what it is. This is where you see the SPG card shine, as always.

So where do I get Hilton from then? Turns out Club Carlson, Starwood, Choice, Wyndham, and Best (Worst) Western all have big old FX fees. Not sure about you, but I travel internationally a *lot* for business and I never travel domestically for pleasure. An FX fee effectively negates all the other benefits by making the cards essentially unusable at their overseas hotel locations, and knocking the base earnings rate well below 1% for any other spending you would do overseas. Thus, the list reduces to four:

Hotel H+CC H CC
Hilton 19% 14% 2.10%
Marriott 18% 14% 0.90%
Hyatt 14% 10% 1.50%
Priority Club (IHG) 12% 9% 0.60%

Of these, Marriott and Hilton cards, and maybe Hyatt, are worth owning for use at hotels. However, only Hilton maintains a return above 2%, which is my personal cut off (because the Capital One Spark Cash is 2% unrestricted cash back without FX fees). You could argue for the Sapphire preferred here as well, but it doesn’t get the extra kick of 3% for Hiltons, and it doesn’t come with Diamond status (for $40k spend).

As soon as I hit lifetime Plat with Marriott next year (thanks to the new rules!) I’m a Hilton man!